Sunday, 8 March 2009

Ken Rogoff On Chess, Artificial Intelligence & Globalization

Kenneth Rogoff

I have recently posted a list of chess player economists (here). One of the most influential economists in the world currently is Kenneth Rogoff (Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Harvard University, and formerly chief economist at the IMF). In this article from the site Project Syndicate Rogoff argues that replacing people with "pocket professors" (artificial intelligence portable computer technology) is likely to be more important than outsourcing and globalisation in the future.

Artificial Intelligence and Globalization - Kenneth Rogoff - Project Syndicate:

Today’s conventional wisdom is that the rise of India and China will be the single biggest factor driving global jobs and wages over the twenty-first century. High-wage workers in rich countries can expect to see their competitive advantage steadily eroded by competition from ... Asia, Latin America, and maybe even some day Africa. ... But I wonder whether ... another factor will influence our work lives even more: the exponential rise of applications of artificial intelligence.

My portal to the world of artificial intelligence is a narrow one: the ... game of chess. You may not care a whit about chess... But the stunning developments coming out of the chess world ... should still command your attention. Chess has long been the centerpiece of research in artificial intelligence. While in principle, chess is solvable, the game’s computational complexity is almost incomprehensible. It is only a slight exaggeration to say there are more possible moves in a chess game than atoms in a universe.

Rest of article here ...

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